Though that is the more polite version of the saying, I prefer 'You can't polish a Turd' as it almost has a swear word in it which is (as I'm sure your aware) how I judge the quality of any sentence. It's also probably a better description of what I'm going to be waffling on about.
The theory is often put forward that a non-optimised list can effectively become optimised in the hands of a general of sufficient talent or at least one who's used a certain list forever. Of course should both of those things be true of that person then we get all sorts of oddball pieces of shit doing well despite many competitive gamers claims that it shouldn't happen.....
The fact is that it does.....Though they're right in the fact that it probably shouldn't,
Lets look at why, shall we?
Experience.
That guys been playing for twenty years so he's bound to be good.
Well he might be but this is by no means automatically true. Somebody who's played against a high level of opponent for a long time may well be a great player but this isn't an automatic upgrade* to your abilities that happens over time.
So our hypothetical awesome player who's winning every week while still using Dual Lash, Horde Orks or some other looked down upon army configuration is going to have to have an in depth understanding of the performance of his army against a number of different quality opponents. Kerb-Stomping some kids Necron Battle Force doesn't count I'm afraid...
* It's not like levelling up for fucks sake ;-)
Lets give this person the benefit of the doubt shall we and presume that his victories have been gained while competing against worthy foes and move onto the next factor,
Skill.
I didn't see that coming...
Player Skill isn't the same as experience. Though you may have faced the same Space Wolf army configuration or similar type of enemy deployment a hundred times that doesn't mean that you automatically know how to deal with it. Being able to think three moves ahead and manoeuvre your opponent into the exact place you want him is Skill. Guessing generic Khorne army 'A' will probably charge straight towards you rather than go for a refused flank strategy may come from experience.....putting that army in the position you want it through the application of movement blocking units, precise fire priority and 'bait' units is Skill. Experience is nice.....Skill is better.....both on the other hand.....
The Veteran Player.
But I was winning a turn ago.....
Watching a skilled and experienced Veteran player systematically destroy a supposedly superior army is always fun to watch, mainly because people like to see the underdog win occasionally and more often than not it's enjoyable to see a person with a random 'net-list' that he perceives as unbeatable getting beaten as this appeals to the basic human desire to want to see smug bastards knocked down a peg or two.
I'm in no way immune to that feeling myself but more often than not I can see a dozen ways that the smug bastard with the net-list could have beaten his opponent if he'd just have known what he was doing.
So why aren't these supposedly unbeatable lists actually unbeatable????
Reality.
Nothings actually unbeatable.....
Mike Tyson 'broke' the boxing world by just being so damn strong that it didn't matter how good his opponents were at boxing, once he hit them they weren't getting up again. Of course over time those opponents who could box and were willing to put on 50 pounds of muscle began to give him a run for his money**
At some point we all roll a 1 for a crucial armour save.....that's just the way it is, lol. Of course part of that defeat is not preparing for the fact that unit 'A' might die before it gets a chance to make it's mark on the game.....
** yes I know I've vastly oversimplified the complex nature of Mr Tyson's career but I'm trying to make a point here ;-)
Overconfidence.
I've never lost a game with THIS army.....
Sound familiar? All the things I've talked about that result in wins in conjunction with the earlier mentioned 'Veteran player with a crappy army' apply just as often to the individual with his optimised list freshly assembled from Generic Template 'A' courtesy of uber competitive blog 'B'. Namely the fact that you need to use it against a wide variety of opposing army types, in a number of different mission types against opponents who know what the fuck they are doing before you can be even close to being able to say with confidence 'I'm going to win this one' without the dice gods deciding to punish you for your arrogance.
Well it's new isn't it.
Grey Knights are broken because they have.....
Certain units in a new codex just leap out at you as the obvious choices and that can often blind you to the subtle nuances of the Codex** and those things tend to come to light as a result of play-testing over time. Unit configurations and combinations overlooked in the initial wave of 'Oh my God, they have strength 8 Autocannons' or whatever, gradually work the way into successful army lists over time. Look back at even the most ultra competitive of blogs and websites and see if their still talking about using exactly the lists they were suggesting the day or even the month after a codices initial release...had a rethink now have they?
** often they're only in it by accident though...
A Conclusion of Sorts...
Though I still stand firm with my opinion that an optimised list is going to outperform a non-optimised one, the list alone isn't what makes the difference...Behind that list is a player.....and it's him that you need to be worrying about.....
Thoughts and comments are (as usual) most welcome.
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